publication . Article . 2018

Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

Wiebe, Keith; Zurek, Monika; Lord, Steven; Brzezina, Natalia; Gabrielyan, Gnel; Libertini, Jessica; Loch, Adam; Thapa-Parajuli, Resham; Vervoort, Joost; Westhoek, Henk;
Closed Access English
  • Published: 31 May 2018
Abstract
In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision maker...
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free text keywords: scenarios, foresight, agriculture, environment, climate, decision making
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