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Earth's Future
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Earth's Future
Article . 2017
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Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply

Authors: Juraj Balkovic; Rastislav Skalský; Christian Folberth; Nikolay Khabarov; Erwin Schmid; Mikuláš Madaras; Michael Obersteiner; +1 Authors

Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply

Abstract

AbstractEven if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO‐CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South‐Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha−1 in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha−1 in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha−1 in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high‐input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 50 Gcal ha−1 due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North‐Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about 2–50 times higher than climate change impacts.

Countries
Austria, Spain
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Calorie business.industry Global warming Climate change Crop Nutrient Environmental protection Agriculture Soil retrogression and degradation Environmental science business Downscaling

Keywords

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), General Environmental Science

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    27
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
  • citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    27
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    Powered byBIP!BIP!
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold
Funded by
EC| IMBALANCE-P
Project
IMBALANCE-P
Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 610028
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP2 | ERC
Validated by funder
,
EC| IMPACT2C
Project
IMPACT2C
Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 282746
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
iis
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