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Abstract How integrated are agricultural markets in conflict-affected states? We answer this question by examining the dynamics of monthly price series of rice, maize and sorghum across eleven cities (markets) of Somalia. Using conflict as a source of transaction costs between spatially connected markets, we examine its role in price transmission between the markets in a panel smooth transition regression framework. We find that in the case of rice—an imported cereal grain—conflict tends to reduce the speed of price transmission between markets. By contrast, we find no evidence of conflict-related transaction costs in the case of maize and sorghum—commodities that are locally produced, particularly in the central and southern parts of Somalia. In all instances, we find that there is some degree of spatial integration among cereal markets around the country, perhaps partly due to informal institutions that can bridge the divides created by conflict, distance and internal political fragmentation. These findings add crucial detail to the literature concerned with the role of commodity prices on poverty and food security in conflict-affected states.

Abstract Recent research suggests that coupling microfinance loans with an index insurance policy may be a cost-effective way to expand credit market access to smallholder farmers in developing countries. Index insurance can increase demand for credit and encourage increased supply of credit by protecting borrowers and lenders from covariate production shocks that discourage credit market expansion. In this paper, we propose that index insurance, when bundled with credit, may also reduce a different barrier to credit market access: high transaction costs caused by moral hazard in the credit market. We develop a theoretical model of a competitive credit market with moral hazard. In this market, lenders use either dynamic incentives or collateral to mitigate the moral hazard problem. The model shows that index insurance bundled with loan contracts can reduce moral hazard and increase borrower welfare. We then test the model and find some empirical support using a subset of data from a randomised control trial in northern Ghana.

Abstract This paper decomposes the gender agricultural productivity gap and measures the factors that influence the gap between male and female agricultural plot managers in Mali. The Oaxaca–Blinder approach and the recentred influence function (RIF) decomposition methodology are applied to a nationally representative survey of Mali. The results show that the agricultural productivity of female plot managers is 20.18% lower than that of male plot managers. Additionally, while more than half (56%) of the agricultural productivity gap is influenced by female-specific structural disadvantages, 44% of the gap is due to an endowment effect. Socio-economic characteristics such as the educational level and age of the plot manager, environmental factors and agricultural production practices, i.e., the differential use of inputs (organic or inorganic fertiliser and improved seeds) and the use of hired female workers seem to affect the female-specific structural disadvantages. To reduce or close the gender productivity gap, the underlying causes of female-specific structural disadvantages must be addressed to enable female farmers to obtain the same returns as men. Traditional means of addressing the gender gap, such as providing education for women in rural areas and facilitating rural women’ access to extension services and improved seeds, can mitigate the endowment deficit. This paper highlights the need to develop a better understanding of the factors influencing the structural disadvantages faced by female farmers in Mali that could feed into the development of more effective policies to address the gender gap in agricultural productivity, improving productivity and gender equity and reducing poverty.

Abstract The 2014-15 Ebola epidemic took a devastating human and economic toll on three West African countries, of which Liberia was perhaps the hardest hit. The pathways through which the crisis affected economic activity in these largely agrarian societies remain poorly understood. To study these mechanisms in the context of rural Liberia, we link a geographically disaggregated indicator of Ebola disease mortality to nationally representative household survey data on agricultural production and consumption. We find that higher Ebola prevalence (as proxied by local mortality) led to greater disruption of group-labor mobilization for planting and harvest, thereby reducing rice area planted as well as rice yields. Household welfare, measured by per capita expenditures spanning two points before and after the crisis, fell by more in Ebola prevalent areas with more intensive rice-farming, precisely those areas more adversely affected by agricultural labor shortages.

Abstract Are the effects of sustainable agricultural practices heterogeneous across agro-ecology and wealth in Malawi? Would a wealth-enhancing policy be associated with increased effectiveness of these practices? Focusing on a nationally representative set of Malawian agricultural households, the article answers the above questions by employing plot-level panel data matched with a set of geo-referenced rainfall and temperature records. The findings suggest a positive correlation between aggregate yield and the adoption of organic fertilizer. A similar result holds for legume intercropping and for hybrid seeds, which are associated to reductions in yield volatility between the two waves. Nevertheless, these effects appear heterogeneous across the agro-ecological zone of adoption, since a reduced number of farmers in selected locations can improve yields through the adoption of these practices. Further exploration suggests that less wealthy households show higher returns when adopting hybrid seeds or legume intercropping. Wealthier households, in contrast, report high yield only when treated with technology-enhancing practices, such as organic fertilizers and soil erosion control measures.

Rural villages in peri-urban Ethiopia are being rezoned and reclassified as urban through land expropriation and legislation to fulfil demand for urban use. We provide empirical evidence on changes in income diversification strategies of affected farm households, in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use data collected from farm households on either side of the adjusted urban boundary. The survey took place two years post land expropriation, and five years post rezoning to urban, when local governments compensated farmers for the lost land with substantial amounts of cash relative to annual farm earnings. Multinomial logit estimation results reveal that the urban-reclassified households continue to rely on agricultural income, despite their limited access to farmland post-expropriation. Combining farming with skilled nonfarm employment is the most common strategy for better-off households under both rural and urban administrations. However, poor households rezoned to urban are less likely to participate in nonfarm employment than rural households. Prior experience in the nonfarm sector drives participation in skilled nonfarm employment more strongly than the amount of land compensation awarded. This has important implications for urban policymakers implementing land expropriation, where the implicit assumption is that the cash injection will stimulate entry into skilled employment or business start-ups and smooth the transition into urban livelihoods.

Abstract School meals have been introduced as an important policy tool to improve education outcomes and pupil’s nutritional status. This study uses a unique and large-scale randomised field experiment to assess the effectiveness of such programmes on pupils’s performance (test scores in French, mathematics and the aggregate) and on the internal efficiency of schools (enrolment, promotion, repetition and dropout) in rural Senegal. We show that attrition and non-compliance occurred not at random in the experiment. Relying on the average treatment effect and the complier effects, we find that the programme has a positive and significant impact on pupils’ scores and on the enrolment rate. However, the repetition rate increased. The intervention has a marked gender effect. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows that deworming intervention is more cost-effective than school meals.

Abstract How does the introduction of tied labour or a saving product affect labour market decisions and wages in rural agricultural labour markets? We develop a theoretical model of labour tying that incorporates diminishing marginal returns to consumption and inequality (behindness) aversion in the context of a rural agricultural labour market with seasonally fluctuating demand for labour, and test model predictions using a framed field experiment (modified ultimatum game) in rural Uganda. Our main findings are that (1) wages fluctuate with productivity, (2) access to tied contracts decreases wages for casual labour and (3) access to a saving technology does not improve wages for tied labour. Consistent with model predictions and earlier theory, we empirically find that income for workers goes down (and income for landlords goes up) if an institutional innovation enables consumption smoothing by workers (tied contracts or a saving technology).