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Abstract Rural transformation is an inevitable and fundamental process of development. However, the speed and dimensions of rural transformation can affect investments in major staples such as maize, wheat and rice, which continue to play an important role in agri-food systems around the globe. This paper investigates the impacts of rural transformation on the future of cereal-based agri-food systems which are not directly addressed in global agricultural assessment models such as IMPACT. In this study, we present several key cases of major cereal systems undergoing different changes as a result of rural transformation processes across the major cereal baskets. We place these case studies in the perspective of IMPACT model scenario study results. Our study shows that the rural transformations that are taking place in different regions are heterogeneous with different impacts on the investment requirements for research and development (R&D) in the major cereals. It is concluded that although results of global agricultural assessment models such as IMPACT show initial large-scale effects on food system interactions, an iterative approach with more focused analyses on the complexities of rural transformation is needed to fine-tune results and place them in perspective.

Abstract Literature is scanty on how public agricultural investments can help reducing the impact of future challenges such as climate change and population pressure on national economies. The objective of this study is to assess the medium and long-term effects of alternative agricultural research and development investment scenarios on male and female employment in 14 African countries. We first estimate the effects of agricultural investment scenarios on the overall GDP growth of a given country using partial and general equilibrium models. Secondly, using employment elasticities to GDP growth, we estimate the impact of GDP growth on overall employment in the economy. Results show that, increased investments in agriculture could generate higher overall employment and reduce gender disparities in labor participation. In 8 out of 14 sampled countries, female employment increased more than male employment in response to agricultural investments. Investment in infrastructure had higher impact on female employment growth compared to productivity scenarios.