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Building on the idea that members of religious communities insure each other against some idiosyncratic risks, we argue that religious communities should be more widespread where populations face greater common risk. Our theoretical argument builds on idiosyncratic and common risks aggravating each other. When this is the case, individuals have a greater incentive to mutually insure against idiosyncratic risk when greater common risk makes the worst case scenario of bad realizations of common and idiosyncratic risks more likely. Our empirical analysis exploits common rainfall risk as a source of common county-level agricultural risk in the 19th-century United States. We find that a greater share of the population was organized in religious communities in counties with greater common agricultural risk, holding expected agricultural output constant. The link between rainfall risk and membership in religious communities is stronger among more agricultural counties and counties exposed to greater rainfall risk during the growing season. We also find that among the historically more agricultural counties, more than 1/3 of 19th-century differences in religious membership associated with rainfall risk persist to the turn of the 21st century.

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Universal access to health care services does not automatically guarantee equity in the health system. In the post Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era, the progress towards universal access to maternal health care services in a developing country, like Bangladesh requires an evaluation in terms of equity lens. This study, therefore, analysed the trend in inequity and identified the equity gap in the utilization of antenatal care (ANC) and delivery care services in Bangladesh between 2004 and 2011. Methods: The data of this study came from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. We employed rate ratio, concentration curve and concentration index to examine the trend in inequity of ANC and delivery care services. We also used logistic regression models to analyse the relationship between socioeconomic factors and maternal health care services. Results: The concentration index for 4+ ANC visits dropped from 0.42 in 2004 to 0.31 in 2011 with a greater decline in urban area. There was almost no change in the concentration index for ANC services from medically trained providers during this period. We also found a decreasing trend in inequity in the utilization of both health facility delivery and skilled birth assistance but this trend was again more pronounced in urban area compared to rural area. The concentration index for C-section delivery decreased by about 33 % over 2004-2011 with a similar rate in both urban and rural areas. Women from the richest households were about 3 times more likely to have 4+ ANC visits, delivery at a health facility and skilled birth assistance compared to women from the poorest households. Women's and their husbands' education were significantly associated with greater use of maternal health care services. In addition, women's exposure to mass media, their involvement in microcredit programs and autonomy in healthcare decision-making appeared as significant predictors of using some of these health care services. Conclusions: Bangladesh faces not only a persistent pro-rich inequity but also a significant rural-urban equity gap in the uptake of maternal health care services. An equity perspective in policy interventions is much needed to ensure safe motherhood and childbirth in Bangladesh.

In the late 1990s, China aimed to mitigate environmental degradation from agricultural production activities by introducing the world’s largest ’Payments for Environmental Services’ (PES) program ― the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP). In order to analyze its effects on agricultural households, we develop a microeconomic Agricultural Household Model (AHM), which can model the production, consumption, and non-farm labor supply decisions of agricultural households in rural China in a theoretically consistent fashion. Based on this theoretical model, we derive an empirical specification that we use to econometrically estimate the effects of the SLCP and other exogenous factors. Using a large longitudinal farm household survey data set, we estimate the empirical model with the Hausman-Taylor estimation method. The empirical results are generally consistent with the results of our theoretical comparative static analysis, e.g. that the SLCP significantly decreases agricultural production. While the SLCP increases non-farm labor supply and total consumption in the Yellow River basin, these effects could not be observed in the Yangtze River basin. The recent reduction of the SLCP compensation payment rates has had some notable, but generally small effects.

We use occupational titles from English parish registers in an attempt to test the deskilling hypothesis, i.e. the notion that England’s Industrial Revolution was mainly skill saving. We code the occupational titles of over 30,000 male workers according to the skillcontent of their work (using HISCLASS) to track the evolution of working skills in England between 1550 and 1850. Although we observe a minor rise in the share of ‘high-quality workmen’ deemed necessary by Mokyr and others to facilitate the Industrial Revolution, such as joiners, turners, and wrights, we also find considerable growth in the share of unskilled workers, from 20% in around 1700 to 39% in around 1850, fed mainly by falling shares of semi-skilled blue-collar workers, such as tailors, shoemakers, and weavers. This supports the view that England’s Industrial Revolution was not only skill saving on average but also involved a proletarianization of the English workforce.

We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change.

Abstract This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025, allowing an assessment of the potential future biogas production at a local level. The study builds on a unique time series data set (1999–2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1 km 2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, based on state classes reflecting Danish agricultural legislation. The modelled transition probabilities were assumed to be stationary. This assumption was tested and good fit between the model and the data was found for all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented, supporting the argument of disaggregating data by georegion and livestock type. Throughout the period 2009–2020 slurry based biomass is expected to decrease by approx. 10% in Denmark. The largest changes are found in the Northern and Western parts of the country whereas the most frequent changes are expected to occur in the central parts of the country. The strategic objective of the model and its application within spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production is to form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.

The success of Danish agricultural exports at the end of the nineteenth century is often attributed to the establishment of a direct trade with Britain. Previously, exports went mostly via Hamburg, but this changed with the loss of Schleswig and Holstein to Prussia in the war of 1864. After this, quantity and price data imply narrowing price gaps and thus imply gains for Danish producers. Why then did Denmark not discover the British market earlier? We show that butter markets in both countries were integrated in the eighteenth century, but through the Hamburg hub. We then demonstrate that there were sound economic reasons for this well into the nineteenth century. However, movements to establish a direct trade were afoot from the 1850s. Thus, although the war certainly gave an extra boost to the process, the shock from the loss of the Duchies was not necessary for the future Danish success.